"The joint facility at Pine Gap would be a very important, indeed crucial, element in US intelligence gathering and in Command and Control. Dr. Babbage is the author of the forthcoming book The Next Major War: Can the U.S. and Its Allies Win Against China?. "For my part Australians may be able to defend our nation because of our geographic good luck. These waterways could be used to bottle up Chinese forces. It may turn out to be childs play compared with the havoc China could wreak on the American homeland in a war. "Conventional submarines offer some additional intelligence gathering capability, and the other force elements provide a small additional capacity to the US. An F-16s normal operational radius is usually about 600km. Blood, sweat and tears. And the West may not be able to do much about it. Chinas focus on its region would give it a local advantage in any clash with the US. China is closing the gap, but will they be able to defeat America by the beginning of the next decade. And that would leave Australias critical fuel supply links to Singapore desperately exposed. For the US, the bigger the coalition of countries joining it in any war, the better. Protests break out in Iran as more schoolgirls hospitalised after suspected poisoning. I think the US now accepts it may lose a conflict at least at the conventional level with China.. But will it be safer for women? He says given the rate at which Chinese forces are modernising and building both capability and capacity, "a Chinese victory over the US is the more likely outcome beyond 2035". "America would then have to decide whether to go to war to break the blockade.". 2. The Miyako Strait connects the East China Sea with the Pacific Ocean. Conflict over the island of Taiwan would be a disastrous experience for the peoples of the region, and its something that we should all work to avoid. We acknowledge Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples as the First Australians and Traditional Custodians of the lands where we live, learn, and work. The most immediate fight, however, appears to be centred on Taiwan. "A big unknown is whether Japan would grant expanded rights to the US to use bases located on its territory, without itself joining the combat directly unless its territory is attacked. It could take months to restore trade, and emergency rationing of some items would be needed. ", "China began planning in earnest for a potential conflict with the United States over Taiwan after the May 1999 bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade.". And Beijings new navy has been in almost a constant string of live fire exercises for the past year. The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. Today, Chinas military spending is the second-highest in the world after the United States and continues to rise. The idea sounds grand charging forth, flags flying, to save a bullied island friend. They would be forced to operate as part of a much greater allied unit. And Australia could be fighting for its survival. Rockets figure heavily in Beijings arsenal. "Australia's real utility is as a strategic asset, giving both legitimacy and credibility to the US decision to employ its very formidable military force, and at the same time providing the US with a secure rear that could guarantee logistic and operational support. Allan Behm, now head of the international and security program at The Australia Institute, says were the US and China to go to war over the next five to 10 years the best potential outcome for the US is a stalemate. Looking into the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Europe, and in the wider context NATO, is being drawn towards having to deal with an unacceptable risk of war. This week, China suspended the China-Australia Strategic Economic Dialogue a diplomatic mechanism for trade talksand accused Australia of "disrupt [ing] the normal exchanges and cooperation . The consequences for us would be very serious in terms of the Australian economy, the impact on the Australian people and the ravages to our way of life throughout the land. It is likely to impoverish us all; it may even kill most of us if it goes nuclear. Mr. Xi has championed . "I cannot conceive that there are any benefits in Australia being at war with China unless the circumstances were so serious as to make the cost in lives and treasury worthwhile. February 27, 2023 China's foreign minister Qin Gang will attend the G20 foreign ministers' meeting on March 2. Major combat against the US means two nuclear-armed states fighting each other. Stavros Atlamazoglou. It means mine laying by air and naval units, particularly submarines, blockading ports, inspecting maritime traffic including commercial shipping, intercepting aircraft, and attacking adversary military forces as necessary. But it is already outnumbered. Its a problem long recognised by defence analysts and planners. The U.S. economy is heavily dependent on Chinese resources and manufactured goods, including many with military applications, and American consumers rely on moderately priced Chinese-made imports for everything from electronics to furniture to shoes. Credit:Getty. Over the past decade, China has increasingly viewed the United States as mired in political and social crises. "China's IADS includes an extensive early warning radar network, fighter aircraft, and a variety of surface to air missile (SAM) systems. While most members voted in favor of the six U.N. General Assembly resolutions passed since last . "The fundamental assumption that we could win a war against China is wrong-headed and hawkish; it is also very risky. The Peoples Liberation Army is capable of substantially subduing the US Navy in the waters around China, a Communist Party-owned newspaper boasts. But China has more at stake, because in the long run Taiwan matters a lot moreto China than to America. China would seek to pluck out the eyes and ears of the US and allies to make them blind on the battlefield, said Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute. The 100,000-strong Rocket Force was made a separate branch of the Peoples Liberation Army in 2015. The leaders of both Ukraine and Russia are expected to meet with China's president in the near future. The United States cannot win a war against China over Taiwan, four Australian defense experts have said in a series of interviews conducted by the . Australia, however, was a strategic asset. China is also developing the capabilities needed to support military operations at range, said Nouwens, suggesting they could attack across large distances. . I am convinced that the challenges facing the United States are serious, and its citizens need to become better aware of them. Beijing has already put its assets in place. "In their use of armed force, the American operational paradigm is largely unconcerned by its own casualty rates, so long as they are lower than those of their adversary. "When I was born in 1945 the world population stood at about 2.7 billion people. Critically, the United States is no longer able to outproduce China in advanced weapons and other supplies needed in a war, which the current one in Ukraine has made clear. Major combat against the US means two nuclear-armed states fighting each other. And a mountain range makes it hard to reinforce via its eastern shores. If we lost a single frigate, that's around 170 lives in an afternoon. The last time Chinese troops saw direct action was 1979 when China launched a costly month-long war against Vietnam to teach it a lesson in retaliation for Hanois actions in south-east Asia. "For China, the worst-case scenario is to have to conduct high-intensity operations against Taiwan, the United States, Japan and other US allies and partners simultaneously.. China has demonstrated its capabilities already, including in Taiwan, where it has waged disinformation campaigns, and in serious hacking incidents in the United States. What would war with China look like for Australia? That leaves its navy as its primary fighting force. The map below, compiled from data provided by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), is the most accurate nuclear attack map and fallout demonstration available for 2023: (Image courtesy of FEMA and Halcyon Maps) The fallout would rapidly spread, turning targeted cities into whole affected regions. It is for that reason that some commentators, including me, do not think that China is likely to initiate an offensive war in the near future, until it is sure that it has enough mass to win quickly. The area around it would be highly contested and US war reserve stocks in the Pacific are earmarked for US forces that will assist Taiwan not for Taiwan itself. It can impose costs on our forces. How this young Indigenous artist is taking inspiration from anime and manga to celebrate his own culture, NBA star Ja Morant suspended, 'takes full responsibility' for nightclub gun video, Andrew Tate shuts down cancer rumors, is accused of recruiting politicians to his cause, 'If carers are going to survive, they need this', says resident pioneering dementia respite care centre. It would not require the assent of the Governor General and is entirely in the hands of the prime minister of the day. The US believes China has about 2000 mid-range missiles in place, which could ward off the US Navy in a conflict. ", Any US-China war would be primarily a maritime conflict, and it would be, as we have seen, on a scale unprecedented since the Second World War. This is a statesman-like response to the challenges we are addressing today wherein the risk of war has grown since 2017, in my opinion. "It would suffer high attrition and its military modernisation and even its one-party Communist rule would be threatened. AEST = Australian Eastern Standard Time which is 10 hours ahead of GMT (Greenwich Mean Time), abc.net.au/news/china-us-war-what-would-conflict-look-like-taiwan/101998772, Help keep family & friends informed by sharing this article. "Australia should take a position where averting war is a serious policy objective. And, crucially, they would probably not be able to inflict enough damage to decisively defeat the Chinese. "Wars contain elements of the irrational: pride, fear, ego, confidence, humiliation, and other emotions that elude our attempts at calculation. It has been since at least Monash's time. A rise in tensions between China and Taiwan has raised the prospect of a world war in which Australia will be embroiled.. A Chinese invasion of the island is inevitable within five or six years . Would any divergence of perspectives be thrashed out before going to war? As with the Gulf War in 2003, Washington is always keen to enlist as many countries as possible to spread the cost and political risk. The structure of the military is also different. Satellite image of Chinese vessels in the Whitsun Reef in a disputed zone, March 23, 2021. Credit:Maxar Technologies via AP. [A war is] something that you and I may well have to confront in the next five to 10 years, he said. Six large amphibious vessels have been launched, three since 2015, and a third aircraft carrier, larger than its predecessors, will soon be completed. Australia is underperforming and leaving itself wide open as longstanding fears look set to come true. "If they think the blockade is failing, they may declare victory by pointing to the damage already inflicted or they might escalate to attacking US forces supporting Taiwan. Scenarios in which it would be right thing to do are few. The divergence of the two Taiwan scenarios, a Chinese military attack or an invasion, says a lot about the relative military power of the US and China, itself a barometer of the strength of the two superpowers. They may withhold their offensive cyber power to prevent the US learning their operations. But will it be safer for women? And they cannot be rearmed at sea. In a matter of minutes, Beijings Rocket Force could cripple Taiwans military, infrastructure and ports. The head of Russian mercenary group Wagner says his forces have practically encircled the crucial city of Bakhmut. China believes the island is part of its territory and has vowed to take it back with force if necessary. Fundamentally, it would follow the strategic prescriptions of Sun Tzu in The Art of War. US-China war over Taiwan would be biggest since WWII, Australian expert says. "Unlike the Taliban, China has an air force. Wherever they start, they finish only when one side decides to give up. Which is why Dr Davis argues any conflict would likely focus on two strategic waterways the Bashi Channel and Miyako Strait that guard the China Seas. "People in those days, in the spirit of compromise and understanding, were prepared to work together, if only for a short time. "Because the stakes for both sides are so high, and both are so well armed, it would swiftly escalate into a full-scale regional maritime war," he says. At least initially, the bulk of any such conflict would be at sea. "Australia has a fundamental strategic pathology to support the interests of the US at the expense of our own. "Depending on the scenario, here's what is reasonably predictable: "Firepower strike can vary from a limited strike against symbolic targets to extensive strikes against energy and transport infrastructure (power stations and petroleum, oil, and lubricant (POL) storage sites, highways, railways, bridges, tunnels) as well as military targets (air defence systems, coastal defence cruise missile launchers, fighter aircraft, artillery). Professor Clinton Fernandes is a former intelligence officer with the Australian Army Intelligence Corps and now Professor of International and Political Studies at the University of New South Wales. The US Air Force boasts nearly 2300 warplanes in service, with another 1422 aircraft in use for the US Navy and Marines, Janes calculates. Korea was an unnecessary war, as were the conflicts in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan. Despite its 1.9 million-strong army, compared to Taiwans cohort of 150,000, the task of taking its island neighbour and holding it is a mammoth military challenge. Yet the war in Ukraine is relatively small-scale compared with the likely demands of a major war in the Indo-Pacific. Hugh White, who is also Emeritus Professor of Strategic Studies at the Australian National University, is clear in his analysis: "I do not think there is any credible chance that America, with or without Australia's support, could win a war with China over Taiwan." "China would not seek to deploy land forces to the US (nor Australia for that matter). The number of inhabitants is 1,444,390,177. 3-min read. Then, it was mainly Germany, and from the 1930s Japan. "Even so, the UN has not been able to avert war. As a subscriber, you have 10 gift articles to give each month. The US will pursue the following war aims: 1. Mock attacks will no longer be fake. "A cross-strait Invasion would involve a shaping phase to achieve air, land, sea, and cyber superiority. Hopefully Australian statesmen would have played a significant role in the lead up to a breakdown in cross straits relations.". "China can impose huge costs on the US and perhaps indefinitely deny air control to the US in that zone. I told President Xi that we will maintain a strong military presence in the Indo-Pacific just as we do with NATO in Europe not to start conflict, but to prevent conflict, US President Joe Biden told a joint session of Congress in April. "If we joined the fight, or allowed US forces involved to operate from bases here, then there would be a clear chance that Australia would face direct attack from Chinese long-range forces. But Chinas been preparing for this for decades. A new 'veloway' is welcome news for Melbourne's cyclists. Answer (1 of 34): I must assume Brian Greenhow is joking, but if he is not I must point out that wars aren't won by population numbers or imaginary 'allies', but by real Alliances, either historical or by treaty, and by technology, military hardware, political maneuvers, industry and money, lots . He believes Australia has a "fundamental strategic pathology to support the interests of the US at the expense of our own.". "China's leaders could discreetly offer negotiations to Taiwan's leaders during a blockade before the risky step of ordering an amphibious invasion," Professor Fernandes says. "He would rather support Taiwan and enlist countries around the world in sanctioning or condemning China. And a navy. In its consequences, it would be profoundly and devastatingly different. Hugh White,who is also Emeritus Professor of Strategic Studies at the Australian National University, is clear in his analysis: I do not think there is any credible chance that America, with or without Australias support, could win a war with China over Taiwan.. Provision of military hardware to Kyiv has depleted American stocks of some key military systems. According to the late Sir James Plimsoll [in conversation with me], Mao Zedong said to Prime Minister Nehru when the two met in 1954 that, in a war with any adversary China could afford to dedicate 100 million dead. But it has always seemed to me that China, if it decides on military action to force "reunification"is more likely to mount a blockade than an invasion. So to contribute to this discussion, Ive sought analysis from four of Australias most experienced military strategists and asked them exactly what Australias involvement in a war with China could look like. If the United States cannot control the air, it cannot win either at land or at sea. Possibly completely different. Humans have become a predatory species. A major war in the Indo-Pacific is probably more likely now than at any other time since World War II. "For its part, Australia is casualty averse, as it should be. Who would win in a hypothetical battle between China and Japan? To use the words of one leading military analyst, Australia could find itself "sleepwalking" into a war with China. Behm says the impact on Australia of a war with China would be "profoundly and devastatingly different" from any other war this country has participated in since World War II. The Australian army is extremely careful to preserve the force-in-being by keeping casualties to a minimum. China also has more than 1,350 ballistic and cruise missiles poised to strike U.S. and allied forces in Japan, South Korea, the Philippines and American-held territories in the Western Pacific. The United States might be forced to confront the shocking realization that the industrial muscle instrumental in victories like that in World War II President Franklin Roosevelts concept of America as the arsenal of democracy has withered and been surpassed by China. We acknowledge Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples as the First Australians and Traditional Custodians of the lands where we live, learn, and work. The aim would be to foster confusion, division and distrust and hinder decision making. But would Australia immediately take up the fight? Have employers used high inflation as cover to make excessive profits? And heres our email: letters@nytimes.com. Don't Do It: An All-Out War With China Could End Humanity It is a bad idea to get into a shooting war with a fellow nuclear power. "I hope they don't mean that, just as Britain has the Gurkhas, the Americans have us. And all are watching with great interest as the drums of war beat in some quarters regarding a possible war with China. In July 2020, BeiDou, Chinas version of GPS became fully operational, allowing it to track ships, planes, cars and smartphones from space without relying on the US technology that has dominated global positioning for decades. Chinas leaders could discreetly offer negotiations to Taiwans leaders during a blockade before the risky step of ordering an amphibious invasion, Professor Fernandes says. Hugh White, an emeritus professor of strategic studies at the Australian National University, has warned about the serious consequences that could arise from not adequately addressing tensions. By the time the Peoples Liberation Army launches its third volley of missiles at the island Beijing considers a breakaway province, the US could be just learning of the attack. Professor Clinton Fernandesis a former intelligence officer in the Australian military and now Professor of International and Political Studies at the University of New South Wales. And the protagonists are testing each others resolve on an almost daily basis. US vs. China: Who Would Win a War in 2030? Part 2. Anyone can read what you share. And given Beijings singular focus on finding a way to sink US-style aircraft carriers, their capacity to carry combat aircraft into effective range has been dramatically curtailed. We once had a praiseworthy reputation for the quality of our leadership and our officials. China is now the dominant global industrial power by many measures. The most probable spark is a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. He spent the bulk. The almost daily probes of Taiwans air defences would suddenly turn serious. Part 1. Those are easy targets. But where does that leave Australia and what does it mean to be a US ally. Hugh White says a war between the US and China over Taiwan would "probably be the biggest and most disruptive war the world has seen since 1945". A blockade, he says, would mean that 80 per cent of ships and aircraft would be unable to pass. It depends how it starts. "That's what General Douglas Macarthur found in 1942. Russia, China, Britain, U.S. and France say no one can win nuclear war. In Australia do these commentators truly believe what they have been saying or is it bluff? At the last G20 foreign ministers' meeting, in Bali last summer, Lavrov walked out amid condemnations of Russia's war and its impact on global food and energy costs. Some wouldn't survive. US fighters can operate out of Guam with adequate air-to-air refuelling support, but the round-trip transit time for a sortie is about six hours.". Critical assets such as radars and airfields will immediately be targeted. Let's take a look at who would . But China is a different kind of foe a military, economic and technological power capable of making a war felt in the American homeland. Far fewer know their real story. There are debates today about how reform of the UN is needed to deal with contemporary security challenges but not much progress has been made. Chris Zappone and Eryk Bagshaw June 30, 2021 China-US superpower showdown: military strength Matthew Absalom-Wong Earlier this month, the United States Air Force staged a demonstration involving four heavily armed F-16 fighters. China and the United States are the great rivals in the competition to win the 21st century. "Specifically, China would probably favour four principal avenues for marginalising or defeating Australia. "For Australia the conflict would be devastating whether we joined the fighting or not. Even by 2050 our 37 million people could not amount to much alongside countries having a population base of over 100 million people many of them in our region. The Chinese defence budget reached $324 billion this year. Should a war break out around the South China Sea, the US would be under pressure to quickly neutralise the roughly 10 man-made islands China has created (seen as unsinkable aircraft carriers) to use as military bases. What would war with China look like for Australia? the outcome for the U.S. was not a good one, a new report revealed this week. by Robert Farley L Key Point: Escalation spirals are hard to. "Assuming that China was eventually able to control the Taiwan Strait, it would deploy land forces to Taiwan, both to subdue/destroy the Taiwanese army, any US or allied ground forces that might be in Taiwan, and then to occupy the country.". The collapse of the League of Nations and the dreadful cost of war held hard lessons for how we had to manage international relationships better. It has been growing by 6-8 per cent each year for the past five years but according to defence intelligence agency Janes, US spending remains miles ahead at $759 billion. This is how we got here and what needs to change, 'Please confirm what Muslim refers to': Why Ali's birthday payment for his nephew was flagged by his bank, Kade was a fit 31-year-old when he died from a heart attack, Sherpa are world famous for their work, which is synonymous with their name. But the definition of ancestral territory appears to be changing rapidly. And each one would require a heavy investment of equipment and lives to neutralise if they could be reached in the first place. So it would be an even match. "This would be a far cheaper and less risky way to achieve its objectives. "I do not know whether Defence planners in Canberra would have made such estimates. War over Taiwan would be disastrous, Australias chief of defence General Angus Campbell told a recent gathering. What determines victory, loss or stalemate between the US and China is likely to be determined by the murky calculus of how much risk and how much pain and loss both sides could endure. The Pentagon views China as the "pacing threat," Gen. John "Mike" Murray, head of Army Futures Command, said March 17 during remarks at the Association of the United States Army's virtual Global Force Next conference. "There would thus bea high chance that involvement in a war with China would swiftly exceed the toll in casualties suffered in Vietnam and Korea.". But this will take time. Stock exchanges in the United States and other countries might temporarily halt trading because of the enormous economic uncertainties. americanmilitarynews.com - Radio Free Asia 18h. It depends how it starts China and the United States are the great rivals in the competition to win the 21st century. America would win because the Australians have been weakened for years by the Emus. Taiwan is slightly bigger than the state of Maryland; if you recall how quickly Afghanistan and Kabul fell to the Taliban in 2021, you start to realize that the takeover of Taiwan could happen relatively quickly. Modern aircraft particularly the F-35 stealth fighters in Australias arsenal need tender loving care. These are all Cold War allies of the US, but they have not had to think about war in the region since the 1970s. "China does have the mass to sustain a war of attrition over a long period as it did, and has continued to do, in Korea and in Vietnam for that matter.". "On the other hand, if the US decided to attack China the provocation becomes essential to decision making. Chinas grey zone strategy is designed to use fishing fleets to swarm disputed waters in the East and South China Sea, now supported by armed Chinese Coast Guard cutters leveraging their status as non-combatants to get in close and be able to overwhelm US Navy warship sensors and defence perimeters, former navy intelligence director James Fanell told US media. With that in mind, I sought the views of four of Australia's most experienced military strategists, with 100 years of high-level military and strategic experience between them,to discuss what joining the US in a war with China could mean for Australians. But the Chinese are prepared to wage a much broader type of warfare that would reach deep into American society. Some strategists even use an east-facing map with China at the bottom to show China as being encircled and needing to break out.. Reinforcing Taiwan would likely involve long and bloody battles at sea as underarmed escorts struggle to protect the few but highly vulnerable available transports. To accept that argument as policy would mark the end of our strategic alliance with the US, leaving us more exposed to Chinese coercive pressure and political warfare, or even a direct military threat, Dr Davis says. Far fewer know their real story. Australias role in such a significant potential conflict has been the subject of intense debate in recent years. Fishing boats could push into ancestral territory, backed up by armed coast guard vessels. Have employers used high inflation as cover to make excessive profits? China could also weaponize its dominance of supply chains and shipping. The attrition model appears to be deeply ingrained in the US approach to land warfare. And, if a shooting war does break out, the US and its allies are not guaranteed a win. The only way we can possibly win such a war is to build a coalition similar to NATO. "Given the size of the Australia's forces and the logistic constraints on the US forces, a war against China would be a very hard war to fight. China-US superpower showdown: military strength Credit:Matthew Absalom-Wong. The Pentagon's new report on the Chinese military suggests the effectiveness of the People's Liberation Army is less about numbers of missiles than in how they intellectually and organisationally prepare for war. Dr Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst with ASPI's Defence, Strategy and National Security Program, told Daily Mail Australia it is increasingly likely President Xi Jinping will order Chinese forces.